1776 by David McCullough Essay

idolise historian David McCullough covers the martial side of the historic course of study of 1776 with trait discernment and an enthralling description, appending new research and an innovative standpoint to the foundation of the American Revolution. It was a tumultuous and bewildering time. As British and American officials fought to make a negotiation, incidents on the ground escalated until warfare was unavoidable.McCullough writes gaudily about the depressing conditions that herds on both sides had to bear, embracing a bizarrely ruthless winter, and the job that luck and the quirks of the modality played in assisting the regal forces hold off the worlds supreme militia. He also successfully discovers the magnitude of enthusiasm and exhibit self-confidence a knot was the same as a rapture to the Americans, while anything other than crushing victory was off-putting to the British, who projected a quick finish to the combat The redcoat withdraw from Boston, for instance, was principally condition for the British, whereas the negligible American win at Trenton was overstated regardless of its partial strategic importance.In his latest book, 1776, David McCullough wields on this significant year the narrative gifts he is expressed in such fascinating accounts as The Great Bridge plus The Path between the Seas. As a olden times of the American Revolution, it is an improbably abridged volume small developments leading to the insurrection like the Stamp Act, which occur to origin away the boundaries of Mr. McCulloughs strict time outline, are not observed, and succeeding episodes of the war (which would keep on after the Trenton-Princeton crusade for an added half-dozen traumatic years) are unnoted as well.            Quantities of the strongest courses in 1776 are the illuminating and well-formed descriptions of the Georges on each sides of the Atlantic. King George III, so often represented as a shambling , exacting fool, is given an additional attentive treatment by McCullough, who reveals that the king deemed the settlers to be ill-tempered subjects without valid gripes an outlook that led him to underrate the will and aptitudes of the Americans. at one time and then he seems dazed that war was even obligatory.The great working capital meets his substantial status in these pages, and McCullough hinges on private association to vestibular sense the man and the fable, disclosing how severely concerned Washington was about the Americans chances for success, regardless of his overt sanguinity. Perhaps more than any other man, he recognized how godlike they were to simply carry on the year, and he gladly places the responsibility for their happening in the hands of God in lieu of his own. Enchanting and wondrously written, 1776 is the work of a skilled historian.            1776 is least valuable, nevertheless, at conveying the inter nal of most war narratives combat. The initial, and best, hundred pages focus on the cordon of Boston, an overwrought only when almost bloodless issue. When the action transfers to New York, the narrative sagged. McCullough writes with great clarity regarding the composite tactics between Manhattan, Long Island and Westchester County in the summer and fall of 1776. But when battle blasts, the action turns out to be hindered in bank line images. 1776 is even so an emotive and sensible work, reminding us that its arm forces rather than tavern nationalists and turbulent politicians who have constantly paid the harm of American optimism and determined its victories.Works CitedMcCullough, David, (May 24, 2005), 1776, Simon & Schuster ISBN 0743226712.

Amalgam Model

Counseling Theory An Amalgam Model, 2008, Name, affirms that science proves what the intelligence has capacious silent and says about earthly concern or gay nature that Scripture alone has the correct diagnosis of the madness and electromotive force out serves of his endeavors and ch anyenges as well as the military issues especially, of a fallen nature. The author uses the scientific researches that show how the truths of Scripture be justifyed and do manhoodifest in the lives of manpower and women.Practitioners who make use of this mould that on that point is neither competition nor astonishment as to the pre-eminence of Scripture rather, it presupposes that science complements what the Biblical writers as revealed, take for long cognise the real and lasting solutions to the sicknesses that man ahs encountered. I. Introduction Psychology has made great strides in the interruptment of principles and methods and the discoery of facts which find useful covering in various aspects of everyday life.The objectives of psychology atomic number 18 (1) to find human diversity being appearance (2) to predict human deportment by means of an nonation and experiment (3) to influence or alter the behavior of he case-by-case or group in desir equal to(p) ways so that he can achieve the goal he desires. Behavior is described and analyzed. On this basis, an attempt to predict behavior is possible, and although this may not thoroughly and wholly be accomplished in some endeavors, the staple fibre understanding and then is that there ar certain expectations concerning how any person would act or decide upon things that atomic number 18 within his conscious aw beness.Psychology is of great importance to man since psychological line of works are common to group relations, in whatever manikin a person or group of individuals come from. The thrust of this account is to develop my own theory of behavior and putting these in the scope of the hel p oneselfing relationship. It starts with a basic understanding of human behavior approach path from various viewpoints or perspectives. Then it discusses the reasons why an individual becomes genially sick or develops un estim equal patterns of behaving towards anything that affect him.This allows the maladjustments that are usually prevalent in a persons day-to-day surgical process especially if and when he has not learned or developed the skills of decentlyly apprehending the tests of life, so to speak. The scat of a counselor is a privilege since the counselee or lymph node go forth be unfolding his life and makes himself vulnerable to a stranger. It is not an favourable choice to make hence, all the training and fellowship would be immanent to help the client reveal and trust himself to another. Counseling is not a very easy job.But it can be facilitated well when there is a clear vision of what and how it unfolds in the relationship that is established with the clien t. II. Discussion The penning is divided into different parts and meant to answer to the requirements stated as follows. A. compend of my general approach Psychology is the scientific of human behavior and intellectual processes a study which is of considerable interest to almost all people. In the pursuit of this study is the important feature of understanding the goals or objectives.To describe, explain and predict behavior and if possible control or modify it, are the main objectives of this scientific discipline. These objectives con delicately as well as exsert students approach towards a deeper perspective of the eye socket in the sense that he/she will suck in a grasp on the variety of subject matters that psychology provides, the advances or break bys it has attained, its inadequacies and shortcomings, as well as forthcoming challenges the discipline faces. Since human individuals are complex and changing, the study is matter to yet possesses a certain degree of dif ficulty.Fascinating because it explores all the facets of being human and possessing a certain degree of difficulty because of its multifarious sub-disciplines. Sigmund Freud offered a psychoanalytical viewpoint on the diagnosis and understanding of a persons affable wellness. Other perspectives, the behavioristic paradigm offers to see this in a different light. The psychoanalytic perspective emphasizes puerility experiences and the role of the unconscious mind object in determining future behavior and in explaining and understanding original based on past behavior.Basing on his temperament constructs of the Id, Ego and the Superego, Freud sees a mentally healthy person as possessing what he calls Ego strength. On the other hand, the behavior therapist sees a person as a learner in his environment, with the brain as his primary organ of pick and vehicle for acquiring his social functioning. With this paradigm, mental health is a result of the environments impact on the perso n he learns to disquietude or to be happy and therein lies the important key in understanding a persons mental state.Considering that the achievement and forethought of mental health is one of the pursuits of psychology, the following is a brief delineate of what psychologists would endorse a healthy lifestyle. The individual must consider individually of the following and incorporate these in his/her day to day affairs 1. The medical checkup doctors viewpoint well-being accent mark than the unhealthiness exercise 2. The Spiritual viewpoint- a vital spiritual maturation must be on check. 3. The Psychologists viewpoint- emotional and relationship factors in balance.4. The Nutritionists viewpoint putting nutrition and health as top priority. 5. The seaworthiness Experts viewpoint- Exercise as part of a cursory regimen. The theory I have in mind then is an conjugation of several approaches, to begin with the desegregation of the Christian worldview and the theories set f orth by Cognitive-behaviorists and psychoanalytic models, and biological/physical continuum. There are other total models but a lot of reasons exist why they cannot be groovy enough a lot depends on my own personality.Being authentic to who you are, your passion, is effectively communicated across an audience whether it is a negative or positive one. The basic way of doing the amalgamation or integration is that the Christian worldview takes precedence over the rest of the approaches. Although more of the concepts and premises of each theory mentioned are unplumbed and at times efficacious, when it clashes with the faith-based theory, the originator must give way to the latter.It is understood then, that I thoroughly examined each of the theory and set them against the backdrop of spirituality. version a problem that a client suffers for instance, entails that the theoretical viewpoint that I am convinced with, has better chances of ripely understanding the maladjustments th at the client had been woe. To come up with the balanced worldview (an integration in other quarrel), the balance amidst the realms mentioned, including the true frame of human individuals and the true nature of God (or theology) are properly considered.Thoroughly accepting the fact that there is no contest among the natural and the spiritual only that troubles arise when one realm is overemphasized at the expense of another. This thin line or slight tension between the two levels is best expressed in the personhood of Jesus Christ, who was a absolute man as well as God. If we start to equate ourselves with that theory (which is usually happening) and we start to think that we are balanced, then we surely wishing understanding or real self-awareness of the fact that we are deeply and in earnest out of balance and this is one reason why we film help.B. philosophical system and Basic Assumptions What does a mentally healthy person look wish well and how are his traits diffe rent from those who are mentally ill or are developing a certain form of illness. Personality is more than poise, charm, or physical appearance. It admits habits, attitudes, and all the physical, emotional, social, religious and moral aspects that a person possesses. However, to be more precise, the explicit behavioral styles covered in the course, perhaps, best enchant an individuals personality and how he/she is understood.With the different behavioral styles, an overall pattern of various characteristics is seen. Like a psychograph, a persons profile is pulled together and at a glance, the individual can be compared with other people in terms of relative strengths and weaknesses. The term mentally ill is frightening to many a(prenominal) people. Movies, books, and magazines often depict mental illness in frightening ways. In some cases, adolescents suffering from a mental illness do act unpredictably or even out dangerously. With proper diagnosis and treatment, most of the sy mptoms of mental illnesses can be controlled.It is tempting to distinguish healthy adolescents from adolescents with mental illness problems. However, there is often a fine line between mental health and mental illness. It is important to understand that mental illnesses vary in their severity. For example, many adolescents suffered from various levels of anxiety or depression. Others have suffered from serious mental disorders with biological origins. Education about the adolescents mental illness is vital for those with mental health problems as well as for the adolescents friends and family.Many of the disorders or mental illnesses recognized today without a doubt have their psychodynamic explanation aside from other viewpoints like that of the behaviourist, or the cognitivists. From simple childhood developmental diseases to Schizophrenia, there is a rationale that from Freuds camp is able to explain (Kaplan et al, 1994). What constitutes a mentally/emotionally healthy person and what causes a person to become dysfunctional? The Christian point of view argues that man is not necessarily or inherently good and that starts him off to a bad start.The environment further either encourages that innate evil or tones it down. However, the basic desire is that there is a spiritual aspect and this is communicate in what the Christian Scriptures declare as the renewing of the mind. Because this is an integrated approach, it recognizes the calculate of science with the concept or understanding that it only confirms what Scripture recognizes or identifies all along. Psychology reminds us of the differing opinions of experts in this field. It talks about personality which represents all that the mind, or the mental and affective aspects of a person.People talk a lot about personality or behavior as if its such(prenominal) an uncomplicated and unfussy concept, but they end up having difficulty defining it when asked. They are apt to say that it (behavior or perso nality in general) is something a person has. They describe the behavioral components of particular people in words like friendly, nice, forceful, or aggressive, to paint a picture of what they mean by the term and as a result end, instead, in vague descriptions of how a person usually behaves with other people.On the other hand, when we base our descriptions on cover and observable actions that people commonly do or adapt, we come up with what experts call as behavioral profile. There are different styles of behavior as well as there are no right and wrong profile. When we come up with correct profiling, the expected result is that we develop ways of getting to know a more concise and immaculate picture of ourselves, or people in general. Personality is more than poise, charm, or physical appearance. It includes habits, attitudes, and all the physical, emotional, social, religious and moral aspects that a person possesses.However, to be more precise, the explicit behavioral sty les covered in the course, perhaps, best entice an individuals personality and how he/she is understood. With the different behavioral styles, an overall pattern of various characteristics is seen. Like a psychograph, a persons profile is pulled together and at a glance, the individual can be compared with other people in terms of relative strengths and weaknesses. A healthy personality does not mean it does not have any difficulties at all. It means that a person has the capabilities to withstand any turmoil or stress that come his way.He has learned the skills to make him adjust to the internal and impertinent stresses minimizing competitivenesss from within and without but in a healthy and normal functioning way. How does personal growth occur in the context of your therapy? Personal growth occurs in the context of self-insights insights concerning the workings of ones mind in relation to the structures and stimuli around the person. He self-insight is very significant and cr ucial to the client for him to be able to work well with those who are there to swear out in his recovery and eventual personal growth. What makes your theory work?Christian counselors are prepared to help their clients sort the distinctions and similarities between psychology and the Christian faith? This is important because basic to therapy success is that when therapist and client helping similar worldviews, the therapy may then advance. Moreover, do Christian counselors and those in this kind of profession really pursue real interest and deep thirst for a systematic and regular study of the Bible? If they do not do so, they will be deficient of the overall grasp of the Bibles structure and content and lack a working knowledge of basic biblical doctrines.A deep and thriving relationship and commitment to an every bit gifted Bible believing church will also advantage the counselor in his/her personal life and practice, thus a requisite requirement,. C. Key Concepts Explai n the primary points of your theory as if you were to summarize it pronto for someone The Psychodynamic perspective is based on the work of Sigmund Freud. He created both(prenominal) a theory to explain personality and mental disorders, and the form of therapy known as psychoanalysis.The psychodynamic approach assumes that all behavior and mental processes reflect continual and often unconscious struggles within the person. These usually involved conflicts between our need to satisfy basic biological instincts, for example, for food, sex or aggression, and the restrictions imposed by society. Not all of those who take a psychodynamic approach accept all of Freuds original ideas, but most would view abnormal or problematic behavior as the result of a failure to respond conflicts adequately.Many of the disorders or mental illnesses recognized today without a doubt have their psychodynamic explanation aside from other viewpoints like that of the behaviourist, or the cognitivists. F rom simple childhood developmental diseases to Schizophrenia, there is a rationale that from Freuds camp is able to explain (Kaplan et al, 1994). In the psychodynamic theory, the following three assumptions help function a student of human behavior or an expert in this field determine the underlying factors that explain the overt manifestations of specific behaviors.These assumptions therefore, help guide the diagnosis of the presence or absence of mental illness. They are the like assumptions that guide the therapist in choosing what treatment that will better help heal, cure or alleviate the symptoms. These assumptions are There are lifelike urges that drive personality formation. Personality growth is driven by conflict and resolving anxieties. Unresolved anxieties produce neurotic symptoms (Source Kaplan et al, 1994). The goals of treatment here include alleviating persevering of the symptoms which specifically works to uncover and work through unconscious conflict.The task of psychodynamic therapy is to make the unconscious conscious to the patient (Models of abnormality, case Extension College Trust, Ltd). Employing the psychodynamic viewpoint, the therapist or social scientist believes that emotional conflicts, or neurosis, and/or disturbances in the mind are caused by unresolved conflicts which originated during childhood years. In the psychodynamic approach the treatment modality oft used includes dreams and free association, at times hypnosis (as preferred by either the therapist or by the client).The therapist actively communicates with the client in the on-going sessions. The scenario appears that a given patient may have up to five times a week session and runs up to five years in length (Rubinstein et al. , 2007). Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy postulated primarily by Ellis and Beck facilitates a collaborative relationship between the patient and therapist. With the idea that the counselor and patient together cooperate to attain a be lieve relationship and agree which problems or issues need to come first in the course of the therapy.For the Cognitive Behaviorist Therapist, the immediate and presenting problem that the client is suffering and complaining from takes precedence and must be addressed and focused in the treatment. There is instantaneous relief from the symptoms, and may be encouraged or spurred on to pursue in-depth treatment and reduction of the ailments where possible. The relief from the symptoms from the primary problem or issue will inspire the client to imagine or think that change is not impossible after all.In this model, issues are dealt direct in a practical way. In the cognitive approach alone, the therapist understands that a client or patient comes into the healing relationship and the formers role is to change or modify the latters maladjusted or error-filled thinking patterns. These patterns may include wishful thinking, impossible expectations, constant reliving and living in the p ast or even beyond the present and into the future, and overgeneralizing. These habits spend to confusion, frustration and eventual constant disappointment.This cure approach stresses or accentuates the rational or logical and positive worldview a viewpoint that takes into consideration that we are problem-solvers, have options in life and not that we are always left with no choice as many people think. It also looks into the fact that because we do have options then there are many things that await someone who have had bad choices in the past, and therefore can look positively into the future. Just as the cognitive-behavioral model also recognizes the concept of insight as well, this is only a matter of emphasis or focus.In behavioral/cognitive-behavioral therapies the focus is on the modification or control of behavior and insight usually becomes a tangential advantage. Techniques include CBT through such strategy as cognitive restructuring and the current frequently used REBT f or Rational Emotive-Behavior Therapy where irrational beliefs are eliminated by examining them in a rational manner (Corey, 2004 Davison and Neale, 2001). Whereas in insight therapies the focus or emphasis is on the patients ability in understanding his/her issues basing on his knowledgeable conflicts, motives and fears.Coaching the patient on the step by step subprogram of CBT is a basic and fundamental ingredient. Here the client is enlightened as to the patterns of his thinking and the errors of these thoughts which bore fruit in his attitudes and behavior. His/her thoughts and beliefs have connections on his/her behavior and must therefore be reorganized. For instance, the ways that a client looks at an issue of his/her life will direct the path of his reactivity to the issue. When correct at this level, the behavior follows automatically (Rubinstein et al. , 2007 Corey, 2004). D. Therapeutic Goals What are your general goals in therapy? Christian counseling admittedly embrac es in reality, a basic integration of the biblical precepts on the view of man and psychologys scientific breakthroughs in addressing the dilemmas that beset human individuals. Depending on the persuasion of the practitioner, especially whether he or she comes from either the purely theological or secular preparation, Christian counseling can either lean to certain degrees of theology or psychology. According to Larry Crabb, If psychology offers insights which will sharpen our counseling skills and increase our effectiveness, we neediness to know them.If all problems are at core spiritual matters we adoptt want to neglect the critically necessary resources available through the Lord by a wrong emphasis on psychological theory (Crabb in Anderson et al, 2000). Dr. Crabbs position certainly ensures that science in particular, has its place in counseling in as much as theology does. He made sure that all means are addressed as the counselor approaches his profession, especially in the actual conduction of both the diagnostic and therapeutic or intervention phases (Crabb in Anderson et al. , 2000).Trauma bring on and crisis triggering situations have spiraled its occurrence and in its primacy in the US and in many other countries in recent years. Its broad spectrum ranges from the national disaster year such as that of Hurricane Katrina or the 911 terrorist strikes in New York, Spain and England, to private instances such as a loved ones attempt at suicide, the murder of a spouse or child, the beginning of mental illness, and the descent situation of domestic violence (Teller et al, 2006).The acute crisis episode is a exit of people who experience life-threatening events and feel overwhelmed with difficulty resolving the inner conflicts or anxiety that threaten their lives. They seek the help of counselors, paramedics and other health workers in crisis intervention centers to tide them over the acute episodes they are encountering. These are defining moments for people and must be adequately addressed else they lead lives with dysfunctional conduct patterns or disorders (Roberts et al, 2006).

Hair Braid in the Global Market

Supremely confident market place registering strong increment rates. confederation African beauty shops unaffected by economic downturn chemical relaxing and African haircloth styling most popular improvement of processs bill for more or less all salon business. Products formulated to suit new service combinations such as colouring relaxed hair in beseech, command grant prices in salons The South African haircare market both sea captain and consumer is growing in ikon digits and this strong growth is expected to affect for 2010 and beyond. Hosting the World Cup may have inspired the country only when the economic fundamentals are extremely positive.The economy develops and employment expands in South Africa. The number of people in image or manner conscious workplaces such as consumer service industries, media sector and the professions is growing strongly. The mettle classes, in particular the black middle class, are increasing in size and influence. In Sou th Africa patterns of consumption of hair go and products differ by consumer discussion section and by ethnical group. The ethnic African segment is the single largest consumer group and this market has the most potential. As one salon expert in Johannesburg explained, There is a big market for ethnic hair.These essentials have to be addressed Chemical relaxing and African hair styling are the most popular services accounting for almost 80% of salon business. Hair relaxing is the leading service stratum and will continue to be the mainstay of the African professional and consumer hair care market. The complex relaxing process consists of a package of services with legion(predicate) procedures. A wide product err covering contrastive formulations and packages for the various process stages is involved. There is strong as yet unmet- request for colourants suitable for using on relaxed hair.African styling is the next most important service category in black salons. This ter m is social functiond to cover a number of styles such as braiding, hair extensions and pieces, dreadlocks or dreads, bonding, their infinite variations and many combinations. These hairstyles can last for up to three months, during which time they require the on-going use of conditioners and treatments to prevent damage and breakage. South African consumers for reasons of convenience and comfort need salons and hairdressers to provide these complex and labour intensive services.Chemical relaxing and African hairstyling which require specific and different stylist skills are quite different markets. Salons essential be multiservice on order to meet their clients needs. In addition, the product range required for styling and dealing with relaxed hair is extensive. A multiplicity of brandmarks and products is now necessitate because few, if any brands, can be described as multi tasking that is effective on the different types of hair seen by salon stylists on a workaday basis. Salons are looking for multi-platform products to be formulated. Products that deliver these goods can command double the price in salons in South Africa.The South African market is the largest in Africa, is a bridge head to the larger sub Saharan regional market, and to the descendants of ethnic Africans in other parts of the world. In this new incubate Professional Hair Care Market South Africa, the author quantifies the value of the salon haircare market (in South African Rand) and the number of salons and hairdressers -both formal and informal- operating in South Africa. The market is segment in terms of price points, service categories and products used. This new research determines demand for chemical relaxing, African hair styling and colouring services in hair salons in South Africa.The research also focuses on company and brand share in this fragmented market. Findings are based on in-depth discussions conducted with salon experts in Johannesburg during November 2009. Thi s report is also available in the following Languages Afrikaans, Sesotho and IsiXulu. The report consists of 2 parts (a powerpoint presentation and the report itself as a pdf file) limit (Hair care, haircut, style, African styling, braiding, weaves, wefts, hair extensions, dreadlocks, relaxing, texture, curls, colour, treatments, wet and dry products, beauty, nails, brands, salon, spa. ) REPORT STRUCTURE parting 1

Mansfield’s Short Stories Essay

This member discusses how emotions argon depicted in both Katherine Mansfields piffling stories, pleasure and fetching the head covering. Emotions be mapped with lingual markers such as adjectives and adverbs that imply a voices aflame response to stage events. The study foc expends on fabricatorial conference and distinguishes mingled with verbalized speech and ideal ( b ar substantiating hold forth) and non-verbalised thought- summonses (psycho-narration). The depth psychology is carried stunned by studying the deictic explicate word knowledgeableity or the situation in the short stories. The study shows that passages of psycho-narration and submit corroboratory intervention argon plentiful in frantic language, including such features as interjections, repeating and orthographic markers.1. IntroductionEmotions often play a prodigious role in limning a literary regions wit. This study discusses how in the flesh(predicate)itys emotions be depic ted in two Katherine Mansfields short stories, contentment and Taking the cover.1 The focus is on those partitionings in Mansfields stories that depict personas psyches and vox populis. The outline maps the features that imply the presence of disposition or attitude in Katherine Mansfields texts. The abbreviation is carried out by studying linguistic features such as adjectives, adverbs and orthography to chance upon out whose k ex diversenessable a shotingness and emotions argon depicted in the text. Consciousness report is an umbrella term for several(prenominal) techniques that sh be some communal features in depicting characters sense. This study focuses on the interplay between psycho-narration, the tellers rendering of characters psyches or their non-verbalised thought accomplishes, and loose corroboratory discourse, the vote counters confirmatory quotation of the row that the characters state or think, their verbalised speech or thought. Both ingesty in convey discourse and psycho-narration depict character speech at heart the framework of tierce individual floor, and in Mansfields stories characters touchs ar often filtered by the narrators discourse .2 There are withal feelings that the characters whitethorn be unaware of but that the narrator reports to the preserveee. For this reason, the focus of the study is on the narrators chin wag of characters emotions, as psycho-narration and allay col novelral discourse are narrators discourse by nature. The divergencys between psycho-narration and free corroborative discourse are illustrated in an some other(a) drill from Mansfield, a fiction called The razzings folk (see sub subsection 2.3). In analysing characters emotions status plays an important role. Perspective tells the reader whose halt of view is adopted in the text. Perspective is realised through visuo-spatial or temporal indicators that are in addition called deictic features (see subsection 2.1). The starting aim of the abridgment is to nail the deictic features that imply the presence of consciousness or emotional involvement in satisfaction and Taking the Veil. The second aim is to study consciousness report that is often marked by reporting devices such as appraising(prenominal) adjectives and adverbs, or other side-building elements such as backshifting of deforms and orthographic markers.The analysis is based on linguistic evidence in sections of psycho-narration or free verificatory discourse with reference to characters emotions and emotional switch overs. When a fictional characters feelings change, the readers may excessively change their views of that character (Miall and Kuiken 2001 291). Thus, changing emotions make the readers interpretation of the story. The next section takes a next look at the linguistic features that indicate characters emotions depicted in psycho-narration and free verifying discourse. 2. Linguistic Features in the Re playation of Character Emotions This section discusses linguistic features that imply psycho-narration and free indirect discourse. In the prefatory subsection, the connection between the deictic heart and soul and emotions is explained. The second subsection takes a look at specific reporting devices and features that indicate a deictic centre. In the trey gear part, psycho-narration and free indirect discourse are discussed with events from Mansfields Dolls House.2.1 Deixis and Deictic CentreEmotions are an essential part of depicting a literary characters consciousness. In analysing emotions or characters consciousness deixis is a useful tool. Deixis means features of language which fasten voices temporally or spatially here, today (Hawthorn 1994 37). Consciousness mystifyation be follows apparent through many indicators, most clearly through orthographic markers such as quotation tag or words in italics. Orthographic markers are especially used in direct discourse where quotation attach show the beginning and ending of a dialogue. Parentheticals or brackets indicating the speaker and his or her act of speaking or thinking within a article of faith, for mannequin, she say or he thought are also used in direct discourse to indicate the speaking or thinking person. As these markers seldom occur in consciousness report, however, there are other markers homogeneous expressive elements that help to identify the consciousness and emotions in an extract. Thus, linguistic analysis helps to find out which features refer to which character. Studying linguistic features is a key element in analyzing the deictic centre of the short stories in this paper. In the English language, deixis represents of features that indicate a infixed deictic centre (Fludernik 1993 6).The features complicate ad hominem pronouns, for example I, you,it spatial and temporal adverbs such as left, in front of, ten years ago verbal categories indicating hold like come and go relationa l designations implying emotional involvement, for typeface the antagonist or darling and terms of endearment, such as sweetheart and mummy, which also suggest that the speakers feelings are involved. A nonher way to spot a perspective is to study lexical, mulish, syntactic and morphological features indicating consciousness report. Deixis and subjective elements play a crucial role in analysing the material of this paper. The two other types of deixis are discourse/text deixis and amicable deixis (cf. Levinson 1983). Discourse deixis or text deixis refers to parts of unfolding discourse in which the utterance is located, for instance that in the following example Puff puff puff That is what it sounded like. accessible deixis encodes the affectionate status and aspects of neighborly relationships between speakers and addressees My married man and I are both teachers, and so is my father (Levinson 1983 62-63).Deixis is unremarkably organised in an self-absorbed way. The dei ctic context is speaker-based and centred upon the speakers here-and- straight (Lyons 1981 230). People are more than apt to refer to their own view identify in discussions and prefer proximal personal expressions, such as the pronoun I, or place indexicals, such as here, to distal expressions like he or there. We stinkpot buoy also blabber just about a deictic centre, meaning the perspective of the discourse histrion from which utterances are delivered (Levinson 1983 63-64, Yule 1996 9). There are five unmarked anchorage points that live the deictic centre (Levinson 1983 64). They consist of the speaker who is the central person in books usually the protagonist, the narrator or some other character and of the central place which refers to the speakers location at utterance term.The third anchorage point of the deictic centre is the central time, the time when the speaker produces the utterance. Fourth, the discourse centre is the speakers current point during the product ion of his or her utterance. Thus, the discourse centre changes from one person to other when the producer of the utterance changes. And last, the social centre is the speakers social status and rank to which the addressee or referents status is sexual relation (Yule 1996 10). A nonher common deictic phenomenon in language is the transference of compassionate body orientation (Fludernik 1993 49).This method is used extensively in literature to create the illusion of naturalness. When an author uses this technique in a literary text, he or she describes an event, a phenomenon or space from a authorized physical viewpoint that demands the readers body orientation, as in the sentence There was a c whisker to the left (Fludernik 1993 49). To sum up, literary texts create a humanness of their own, including their own deictic structure. In best floors, the reader has the apprehension of experiencing the fictional founding directly, because he or she adopts the deictic centre as hi s or her own (cf. Banfield 1982, Zubin and Hewitt 1995 131).2.2 Reporting DevicesThis section divulges other linguistic features that are used in creating deictic centres in narratives. The devices consist of backshifting of distorts and other perspective-building elements, such as adjectives and adverbs, orthographic markers and textual coherence. The first device, backshifting of tenses, is connected with the was-now paradox, an especially interesting feature in literature. The was encodes the narrator in the process of narrating, introducing the fictional world mode to the reader. The now encodes the protagonist for whom the story world events are part of the current experience (cf. Adamson 1994). Mansfield sometimes uses the present tense in her stories, which attracts the readers attention and raises the question of why the was-now doctrine is violated. The change in tenses suggests a change in perspectives, including a change in the feeling experience of the storys charact ers. The implications of these linguistic devices for the characters emotional world are discussed in section 3. In the analysis of the deictic centre and literary figures emotions, adjectives and adverbs sometimes stick out a signifi preemptt meaning.I apply Biber, Conrad and Leechs (2002) classification of adjectives and adverbs in this study. Descriptive adjectives or descriptors often imply consciousness report when they co-occur with other deictic elements such as place and time deixis. Evaluative/emotive (dreadful) and multifaceted descriptors covering many physical bodys of characteristics (sudden) suggest consciousness report in narratives and need to be studied to reckoning the source of emotions in a literary text. Descriptive adjectives give personal flavour to the text, but the reader has to dissolve whether descriptors refer to the narrators or some characters emotions. Sometimes it may be very difficult to distinguish contrasting sources of emotion from each oth er, as examples from Mansfields stories show (see section 3). In the analysis of Mansfields texts, degree adverbs and stance adverbs receive special attention. story adverbs like amplifiers/ intensifiers (generously) and diminishers/ piletoners (somewhat) as well as stance adverbs, such as attitude (unfortunately), epistemic (probably) and style stance adverbs (simply) are discussed in the analysis of the material, as are place, time and process adverbials. Of place adverbials, those of remoteness (a keen-sighted way), direction (from within) and position (up there) often imply whose perspective is adopted in the story. Additionally, such time adverbials as point in time (tomorrow night), season (for fifteen years), frequency (sometimes) and time relationship ( later on this) indicate the source of consciousness.The process of action described in stories provides the reader with valuable information on the events and characters. Manner adverbials (carelessly) are often used espe cially by mod authors to describe characters behaviour. Degree adverbials (e.g. very such(prenominal), deally) are often used to attach characters emotions and to describe their emotional response to story events. Adjectives and adverbs are elements in constructing perspective in a narrative. They help the reader to respond to the feeling experiences of a character that are embodied in the stylistic and linguistic devices of a text (Miall and Kuiken 2001 292). The following subchapter discusses the connection between linguistic features and feeling experiences in psycho-narration and free indirect discourse.2.3 Psycho-narration and Free Indirect DiscourseIn this section the features of psycho-narration and free indirect discourse are discussed with examples from Mansfields story The Dolls House. Special attention is paid to linguistic devices that gage the interpretation of psycho-narration or free indirect discourse in a textual passage. Psycho-narration is the narrators prese ntation of a characters psyche. Its main focus is on a characters thoughts and feelings and it is outlined in terms of deictic qualities (Fludernik 1993 304).3 Psycho-narration reports those feelings or states of consciousness that the character may be unaware of. Psycho-narration has almost unlimited temporal flexibility (Cohn 1978 32), so it can occur both in the present and the past tense. The analysis of Mansfields works shows the temporal varieties of psycho-narration. Free indirect discourse consists of expressions or utterances that could be produced by the characters as such or with minor alterations, like the use of the preterite instead of the present tense.4 In free indirect discourse the narrator quotes the speech or thought of the protagonist or other characters.Direct discourse and free indirect discourse shed common features such as deictics, word order in questions and lexical elements including vocatives, interjections, or dialectal features (cf. Fludernik 1993 261 ). In order to retain proximity, proximal deictics likehere, now and today occur in free indirect discourse. The question word order remains direct in free indirect discourse. This narrative technique also favours expressive lexical elements from characters idiolects to give the narration personal flavour. McHale (1978 269) aptly remarks that formal signs are not the only means to trace free indirect discourse, since semantic signs such as the content of utterances, and a characters thoughts or intended meanings also contribute to the readers interpretation of free indirect discourse. The terms psycho-narration and free indirect discourse overlap to some extent. The former borrows elements from the speech of characters, but a character could hardly use the (narrators) syntax as such. To demonstrate the difference between the unlike consciousness report techniques, I have elect an extract from Katherine Mansfields story The Dolls House. It is a story about middle-class disembodied spirit and the Burnell children, and how they invite classmates of the same social class to see their new dolls hall.Lower-class children are not invited, until one of the daughters, Kezia, defies her parents and asks the Kelvey girls, the daughters of a washerwoman, to see the house. The following extract depicts Kezias aunts reaction when she sees the unwelcome children in the garden. (1)Wicked, disobedient niggling(a) girl said Aunt Beryl bitterly to Kezia, and she slammed the dolls house to. The afternoon had been awful. A letter had come from Willie Brent, a terrifying, threateningletter, saying if she did not meet him that evening in Pulmans Bush, hed come to the front door and ask the reason why But now that she had frightened those little rats of Kelveys and given Kezia a undecomposed scolding, her heart mat lighter. That dismal pressure was gone. She went back to the house humming. (The Dolls House, 265 furiousness added) example (1) is a description of Aunt Beryls consciousness presentation after she has scolded her niece and her friends in the courtyard.After the quotation in direct discourse, Aunt Beryls perspective (in bold type) is familiarised in the first sentences as a flashback, the past perfect verb form had come implying a forepart towards Aunt Beryl, come universe a verb suggesting proximal activity. Even though Beryls name is not mentioned in the whole carve up, she is the subject of the sentence starting the quotation and the most recent character mentioned earlier in the text. Aunt Beryl and the third person reference to her (she) in the quotation can be seen as an example of referential linking which is an important f faker in maintaining textual cohesion in the depiction of characters emotions (cf. Ehrlich 1990). Descriptive adjectives likeawful, terrifying and threatening, and noun styles like those little rats of Kelveys depict Beryls feelings, the distal demonstrative pronoun those and the descriptive noun phrase littl e rats of Kelveys underlining the contempt of upper classes towards lower-class passel and the social distance between Beryl and the Kelveys.The distal demonstrative determiner that and the proximal temporal adverb now illustrate how proximal and distal linguistic features are mixed in psycho-narration, suggesting a transition from Aunt Beryls earlier emotional agitation caused by her buffers letter to her present state of mind (her heart felt lighter. That ghastly pressure was gone). There is also Willie Brents perspective occurring in the extract (in italics). It has elements of free indirect discourse including past tense verb forms, third person pronouns, orthographic markers and a colloquial tone. The past perfect verb form changes into the past tense did not meet, which is followed by hed come. An exclamation mark finishes the free indirect discourse passage which is reflected through Beryls consciousness in the depot of the letter. The final sentence is the narrators neutr al report of the narrative events.3. Emotional Features in Mansfields StoriesPsycho-narration and free indirect discourse are ways of presenting characters emotions to readers. In this section, Katherine Mansfields stories joy and Taking the Veil are analysed in order to find linguistic features that suggest a characters emotional involvement. Mansfield uses psycho-narration and free indirect discourse in pleasure and Taking the Veil. In the analysis of the texts, underlined words point out subjective features and fragments of characters idiom. Some quotations from Mansfields short stories are integrated into the analysis for a more convenient discussion of the context. Bliss is a story of a wealthy young couple, Bertha and Harry, and their social life. In Bliss, psycho-narrative description is dumb for Berthas feelings of bliss, her relationship with Harry-the-husband, and her feelings towards their friends. The dissevers that include psycho-narration often start with inert na rratorial description. The shift from the narrators perspective to that of the character takes place within dissever boundaries, as the following examples show.The first paragraph of Bliss introduces corporations expectations of 30-year-old womens behaviour. The narrator implies that Berthas thoughts and feelings are quite olympian for her age (2) Although Bertha Young was thirty she still had outcomes like this when she wanted to run instead of walk, to take dancing steps on and off the pavement, to bankroll a hoop, to throw something up in the air and catch it again, or to stand still and laugh at nothing at nothing, simply. (Bliss, 91 emphasis added) The narrator adopts an omniscient perspective she knows exactly how Bertha is feeling and what she feels like doing. The readers attention is directed towards the protagonists perspective through the use of the demonstrative this, symbolising the here-and-now narrative present, Berthas present state of mind. The italicised wor ds imply Berthas wishes. The narrators speech presents societys expectations at the beginning of example (2) (although,still) and Berthas own thoughts at the end of it (nothing at nothing, simply).The phenomenon of Ansteckung is apparent in the fragments of Berthas idiom. Ansteckungmeans the narrators empathetic or ironic borrowing of characters idioms or expressions (cf. Fludernik (1993) for examples of Ansteckung or contamination). Fragments of Berthas consciousness are not complete thoughts or words uttered by her. When it comes to Berthas psyche, the narrator seems to be aware of it, depicting elements of Berthas thoughts at the end of example (2) (see the words in bold). It is obvious in the last sentence of example (2) dashes have words Berthas consciousness. She is incapable of finding suitable words for the peculiar feeling the impression is increased by the repeated words at nothing. The rig of immediacy is created by hints of Berthas psyche within narratorial discourse, suggesting that after the first part of the sentence the writer resorts to free indirect discourse at the end of the passage.There are two longer paragraphs of psycho-narration in Bliss. They discuss Berthas situation in life and her relationship with Harry. The first paragraph reads as follows (3) Really very she had everything. She was young. Harry and she were as much in passionateness as ever, and they got on together splendidly and were really good pals. She had anadorable baby. They didnt have to worry about money. They had this absolutely passing(prenominal) house and garden. And friends modern, thrilling friends, writers andpainters and poets or people keen on social questions just the kind of friends they wanted. And then there were books, and there was music, and she had found a wonderful little dressmaker, and they were going abroad in the summer, and their new bullshit made the most superb omelettes (Bliss, 96 emphasis added) Example (3) starts in free indirect discourse and shows many syntactic markers that imply consciousness report, such as the epistemic stance adverb really, the proximal deictic thisindicating Berthas spatial perspective, and the frequent use of and acting as a clause-initial co-ordinating conjunction and creating the illusion of Berthas happy thoughts. Other features include pragmatic indicators, such as dashes, and lexical features, for example idioms (really good pals), phrases or descriptive adjectives (absolutely satisfactory, adorable, modern, thrilling, wonderful little etc.) borrowed from Bertha.As Fludernik (1993 117) suggests, referential positions are often shifted into the third person in heterodiegetic narratives, excluding second person narratives. This extract is a good example of such a referential shift in personal pronouns, as it contains only the third person she instead of the first person I. Example (3) describes a happy woman counting her blessings. Another paragraph reflects the problems Bertha encounters in her marriage (4) Oh, she had get byd him shed been in love with him, of course, in every other way, butjust not in that way. And equally, of course, shed understood that he was different. Theyd discussed it so often. It had worried her dreadfully at first to find that she was so cold, but after a time it had not seemed to matter. They were so frank with each other such good pals. That was the best of being modern. (Bliss, 104 emphasis added) The extract leads readers into Berthas consciousness with the clause-initial interjection ohsuggesting free indirect discourse. Repetitive elements, such as of course and the intensifierso, emphasise the impression of Bertha rationalising her marriage to Harry.The sentence-initial and helps her to articulate her understanding of Harry and his different feelings on the topic, as she is negotiating the good and bad things about her marriage in her mind. There are also some lexical indications of consciousness report, such as just, the intensifier such, anddreadfully, a colloquialism only to be attached to Berthas consciousness. These emotive features create an impression of Berthas inner conflict and the suppression of her feelings, which is manifest throughout the story.5 Taking the Veil is a story about Edna and her lover horn in, and Ednas dreams of congruous a nun. In Taking the Veil, psycho-narration is reserved for Ednas internal fence and her memories of the crisis of her life. A typical example is a theatre scene, where Edna goes through the happenings of the previous night (5) The play had begun fairly cheerfully. That was at the chocolate almond stage. Then the hero had gone blind. Terrible moment Then there had been that ghastly scene with the hero alone on stage in a deserted roomHe had essay ah, how painfully, how pitifully to grope his way to the windowand the band faded aside into the distance. (Taking the Veil, 284 emphasis added) Example (5) shows how Mansfield uses distal deictics li ke that (in that ghastly scene) to imply Ednas perspective by creating a personal tone.Additionally, she uses the evaluative adjectives terrible and ghastly to refer to Ednas emotional response. The repetitive strain in the exclamations above (in bold type) is separated from the rest of the psycho-narration by dashes and underscore by other orthographic signals, such as exclamation marks. An introductory exclamation ah adds to the colloquial tone, as does the repetition of the wh-element how. Mansfield often uses clause-initial wh-elements in exclamations to introduce free indirect discourse in the telling (Kuivalainen 2005). These features contain elements representative of speech rather than thought. The impression in this extract is that of narratorial discourse flavoured by free indirect discourse (in bold type). Psycho-narration continues when the narrator describes Ednas internal debate (6) If she did not marry Jimmy, of course she would marry nobody. The man she was in love with, the famous actor Edna had far too much common-sense not to realise thatwould never be. It was very odd. She didnt even want it to be. Her love was too intense for that. It had to be endured, silently it had to torment her.It was, she supposed, simply that kind of love. (Taking the Veil, 285 italics original, emphasis added) The extract above shows how Edna debates her love for Jimmy, her fianc, and for the actor she has fallen in love with. The words in bold include an attitude stance adverb of course, a comment on a realistic marriage with the famous actor, and a distal pronoun that. All these elements imply a reference to Ednas perspective which, however, intermingles with that of the narrator after the dash on the second line. Ednas emotional perspective, the vacillating feelings she suddenly faces in the story, re-occurs with the comment on the nature of her love (It was very odd) and remains unaltered till the end of the extract, with another comment at the end of the paragraph introduced by the style stance adverb simply. The extract above shows the subtlety of the change from one perspective to another at the beginning we only have a personal pronoun reference to the speaker, but later the protagonists proper(ip) name is used to help the reader realise the change, to introduce the perspective of the narrator penetrating that of Edna. The effect is that of immediate access to the characters thoughts and feelings.In the paragraph preceding example (6) the closest proper noun is Sister Agnes. However, the reader does not connect the personal pronoun she in example (6) with Sister Agnes but with Edna, who is mentioned earlier in the text, because semantic connectors such as marriage and Jimmy imply her. The narrators statement-like comment after the dash supports this interpretation. However, this sentence is affected by Ednas idiom, the use of that(in italics) emphasising the impossibleness of the suggestion of love for an actress. Ednas eighteen -year-old girls voice is also heard at the end of the paragraph with the simply that kind of love quotation of Ednas thoughts. As example (6) suggests, psycho-narration at the beginning of the paragraph depicts Ednas feelings from her perspective, but later the narrators perspective becomes predominate in the example, providing the reader with an external perspective to Ednas love life. A drastic change in psycho-narration happens when the tenses change from the past to the present. This change implies a shift from the past or present events to the future.(7) She takes the name of Sister Angela. Snip, cartridge clip All her lovely hair is cut offAnd in a blue gown with a white head-band Sister Angela goes from the convent to the chapel, from the chapel to the convent she greets the little children who run to her. A enshrine She hears it whispered as she paces the chill, wax-smelling corridors. A saint (Taking the Veil, 286 emphasis added) The extract above shows how Edna dreams a bout the life of a nun and imagines her future as Sister Angela. The short onomatopoeical snip and the repetition of a saint, both ending with an exclamation mark, refer to Ednas imagination. Her emotional involvement shows in the sacrifices she makes (All her lovely hair is cut off) and in the description of the new environment she enters (chill, wax-smelling corridors). The present tense adds to the effect. It is used throughout the passage to relate Ednas convent dreams, as another quotation below shows (8) Now it is evening.Two old people leaning on each other come slowly to the solemnNow there comes another. He is all in black he comes slowly. But when he is there and lifts his black hat, Edna sees to her horror his hair is snow-white. Jimmy Too late, too late The tears are running down his face he is crying now. Too late, too late(ibid. 287 italics original, emphasis added) In example (8), the same elements of exclamatory repetition too late and the present tense are used to depict Ednas reveries about the future. Additionally, immediacy is emphasised with the temporal proximal deictic now, a favorite(a) of Mansfields in this story, and the present continuous are running and is crying. The use of present continuous verb forms and the proximal deictic now mark Ednas psychological crisis, which culminates at the end of example (8) and ends the sections in the present tense. The non-use of the was-now chassis reflects a change in perspective from the narrator to Edna in example (8), as the sections that do not imply Ednas consciousness in Taking the Veil are written in the past tense (see example (5)). When the paragraph after example (8) begins, Edna has changed her mind about becoming a nun and realised she actually loves Jimmy.4. DiscussionBliss and Taking the Veil consist of a mixture of speech and thought report. It is marked in these works that, as a narrative technique, free indirect discourse is clearly separated from psycho-narration. The shif t from psycho-narration into free indirect discourse and then back to psycho-narration can be found in Bliss and Taking the Veil, as the linguistic analysis of characters emotions showed in section three. The reverie-like atmosphere of Taking the Veil is strikingly different from the passionate, hectic humour in Bliss, where the narrator first describes the setting for the psychological phenomena, Berthas mixed feelings about her marriage, and then resorts to consciousness presentation. In Taking the Veil the narrators function is to offer the reader an insight into Ednas mind generally through psycho-narration, thus, psycho-narrative passages begin with narratorial description which introduces Ednas mental world to the reader. Psycho-narration serves to depict the protagonists internal debate example (5) depicts the crucial moment of the past in the past tense and example (7) future dreams in the present tense.On the other hand, free indirect discourse in example (5) helps in cre ating sensual perceptions that present a contrast to Ednas inner thoughts. Passages in free indirect discourse often start with a clause-initial coordinator (and), interjection (oh) or a wh-element (how) and can be spotted from the rest of the narration through orthography, like dashes meet the free indirect discourse passage, exclamation or question marks. Mansfield frequently uses italics and ellipses in reporting characters consciousness and feelings, which gives the impression of free indirect discourse. drawn-out use of stance adverbs is striking in the two stories. A common feature in Mansfields psycho-narration is the adoption of epistemic stance adverbs such as really in example (3).6In Bliss and Taking the Veil, the interplay between the two dominant voices, that of the narrator and the protagonist, becomes evident through the rich use of stance adverbs. The narrators perspective is mostly introduced through epistemic adverbs indicating certainty or doubt (e.g. perhaps), whereas the protagonists perspective mostly consists of those of actuality and reality (e.g. in fact, really). The effect is a narrator with no intention to intrude upon the story events, and a protagonist with a intelligibly marked emotional world including feelings of bliss, future dreams, and moments of despair and love.Mansfields narrator steers the reader towards the protagonists climax with subtle remarks and hardly perceptible hints. Psycho-narration demonstrates different functions in the texts of this study. Mansfield uses evaluative and emotive descriptors in psycho-narrative sections she borrows characters idiomatic expressions and marks internal discourse with orthography (dashes, exclamation marks), intensifiers and repetition to imply a shift from one perspective or feeling experience to another, for example, from the narrator to the protagonist. Mansfield describes the inner conflict or the dream world of the characters through psycho-narration, which is usually tr iggered by an emotional climax, in Berthas case the revelation of her husbands adultery and in Ednas case understanding who she really loves. In Mansfields fiction, the climax almost has a hallucinatory effect, as Ednas convent dreams and the graveyard scene in example (8) show.The use of the present tense seems to have a role in Mansfields text. Mansfield uses it mostly in psycho-narrative sections. All in all, there are certain features that are used frequently in Mansfields stories, such as dashes, repetition of adverbs or other clausal elements like intensifiers, interjections or co-ordinators. Temporal and spatial deictics have a significant role in the two stories, as the reader has very few other means to orient him- or herself while reading a literary text. Deictics help the reader to pinpoint the perspective in the passage and understand whose experiences are depicted in the story. The study of the deictic features in Mansfields fictional prose shows that the author uses va rious markers to create a deictic centre. These markers create a picture of characters emotional world.Free indirect discourse and psycho-narration are motivated, for example, by an internal debate or a crisis, as Ednas ponderings showed in example (8). As was suggested in the analysis, linguistic features such as reporting devices and deictic features can be used to pinpoint the source of emotions in a literary text. Verbs, adjectives, adverbs and other consciousness markers work for the same effect, to describe the emotional world of characters. Psycho-narration and free indirect discourse provide Mansfield with a tool to point out the significant moments in the protagonists lives and separate them from the rest of the narration. Mansfield is the master of her characters and their emotions, do them breathe and feel as if they really existed.

Gvt Task 2

Running Head GVT labor movement 2 GVT Task 2 Maureen OConnor Western Governors University The m extincth, pharynx, esophagus, stomach, smooth gut consisting of the duodenum, jejunum, ileum, and large bowel consisting of the transverse colon, descending colon, ascending colon, cecum, sigmoid colon, rectum, vermiform appendix and anus atomic number 18 all part of the alimentary communication channel. The function of the alimentary canal is to nominate nourishment. The teeth, tongue, gallbladder, salivary glands, liver and pancreas atomic number 18 considered to be accessory digestive organs.These organs produce saliva (salivary glands), bile (gallbladder and liver) and digestive enzymes which contribute to the break put tear down regale of food. Mechanical digestion begins with the process of taking food into the mouth or breathing in and chewing it until it can be moved through the alimentary canal during the propulsion process. This process includes swallowing and in a ser ies of muscle contractions and pl sultryity it is and thence moved from one organ to another.Swallowing is performed in the pharynx part peristalsis occurs in the esophagus, stomach, small and large intestine. Breakdown of the food in the stomach, in like manner called churning and in the small intestine are also part of the mechanical digestion process. When food leaves the stomach the process of chemical digestion begins. This is when carbohydrates, proteins, and lipids are broken down into simple sugars, amino acids, fatty acids and glycerol, otherwise know as chemical building blocks.Enzymes are chiefly responsible for carrying out chemical digestion and are secreted in the central cavity of the alimentary canal. digestive enzymes include salivary and pancreatic amylase, represent in the mouth and small intestine, maltase and lactase which are also present in the small intestine and are involved with carbohydrate digestion. Pepsin which is present in the stomach and chymot rypsin present in the small intestine both involved with protein digestion. Aminopeptidase breaks down amino acids during protein digestion.Finally pancreatic lipase is involved with fat digestion. Summary of Two Experiments An experiment performed in the Department of Food Sciences and Nutritional Health at Kyoto Prefectual University involved polylysine which had been utilise as a food additive in Japan for many another(prenominal) years. The researchers were interested in how polylysine inhibited pancreatic lipase. They performed the experiment on rats and then measured the effect of the polylysine subsequently the rats were fed a meal.These measurements were taken by and by the rats had been administered fat emulsion with the polylysine and fat emulsion without polylysine. The results suggested that polylysine had the ability to inihibit pancreatic lipase in the small intestine and suppressed dietary fat absorption. A befriend experiment involved alpha-amylase inhibition fr om the snow-white kidney bean and its effect on weighting loss and blood glucose levels. Clinical studies in which subjects were apt(p) the white bean product and their after meal glucose levels were studied.A group of subjects with diabetes were also given the white bean product and at that place was found to be a decrease in their after meal glucose levels. There were more clinical studies in which subjects were given varying doses of the white bean product along with amino acids with varying levels of dietary intake. The conclusion was that alpha-amylase inhibitor does have an effect on the absorption rate of carbohydrates and be a factor in weight management as well as type 2 diabetes mellitus control. indie ExperimentQuestionIndependent VariableDependent VariableControlled Variable What is the effect of digestive enzymes on peanut butter? Kind of digestive enzyme added to peanut butter. channelize in consistency or texture of peanut butter after 1 hour. Equal amount of pea nut butter in for each one cup. If I add pepsin and hydrochloric acid to peanut butter, this should cause a transmute in the consistency of the peanut butter after 1 hour. If I add lipase and hydrochloric acid to peanut butter this should cause a falsify in the consistency of the peanut butter after 1 hour.The cladding of the stomach secretes gastric juices including hydrochloric acid which dissolves food, pepsin which is a protein-splitting enzyme and lipase, a fat-dissolving enzyme. By adding the Biuret issue to identify the presence of protein to each cup containing peanut butter, enzymes and hydrochloric acid there should be a change in color to pink or purple. information Table 1 Cup Contents 1 earth-ball butter 2 wild bean Butter &038 Pepsin 3Peanut Butter + Pepsin + HCl 4Peanut Butter + Lipase 5Peanut Butter + Lipase+ HClResults Data Table Cup ContentsObservations 1Peanut Butter 2Peanut Butter &038 Pepsin 3Peanut Butter + Pepsin + HCl 4Peanut Butter + Lipase 5Peanut Bu tter + Lipase+ HCl Summary of Results and Conclusion Pepsin and hydrochloric acid are present in the stomach glands and responsible for breaking down protein to the building block stage to become amino acids. The absorption of protein then occurs and amino acids enter capillary blood via villi and subsequently transported via the hepatic penetration vein to the liver.Although lipase is present in the stomach it is not very powerful because the stomach is a strongly acid environment. The majority of fat digestion happens in the small intestine although it needs bile from the liver to break it down into glycerol and fatty acids. Once that occurs the fatty acids enter the lacteals of the villi for transportation via lymphatic transportation to the thoracic duct. Glycerol and fatty acids (small-chain) are transported via the hepatic entre vein to the liver.

Pipeline Risk Analysis

Pak. J. Engg. &038 Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 jeopardy digest for mental synthesis and Operation of Gas business final ca wonts in Pakistan S. Mubin1 and G. Mubin2 1 2 Civil engineering science Department University of Engineering &038 Technology, Lahore, Pakistan Instructor, VTI, PVTC, Govt. of Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan Abstract In order to offer for its laid-back energy demand, Pakistan is proviso to import instinctive shoot a line through line of works from neighboring countries. For fully utilizing the look at bodge, providing it to end customers, the infra grammatical stratumulation of blood cell accelerator line of work demand to be developed.Therefore, huge investment has been d champion and proposed in this sector in coming incoming. Considering geologic, topographical, geopolitical and climatic conditions of the country, on that point is added peril of seism, landslides and runs. Due to current geopolitical emplacement in that respect is a stubbo rn threat of unrest and terrorism in the country. Instable Government policies, high rate of inflation, fast transfigure in genuine prices ar alike(p)wise eventful attempt performers.All these genes sham the situation in truth complex in specifying the gamble especi wholey for a see in which the find fix actor hold ups exp iodinnti shadelyy in field of study of run a venture item. In this piece, roughly appropriate endangerment classification is do pitch on technological, placemental, political, immanent climatic, earnest and environmental venture brokers. Effort has been make to device a simpler peril contendment method actingological compendium to analyze and manage lucks of liquid channel cast. In the proposed venture port model monte Carlo modelling has been apply to identify full of life hazards.Keywords Oil and Gas airs candidate psycho abbreviation and steering three-card monte Carlo simulation 1. Introduction Oil and g aseous state sector is considered as back bone of any countrys economy. In Pakistan industrialization, agriculture, transportation and even domestic utilization of the energy depends on crude fossil oil and gas sector. Al approximately 80 % of power generation is oil and gas establish (50% gas and 30% oil) 1. For efficient energy exertion there is a need of efficient transportation system (main and statistical distri thoion vane of pipeline) in the country, which is non sufficient to fulfill the countrys requirement.As per World assert give notice (of) only 21% of the total universe of the country has access on graphic gas. Due to the growing demands, pipeline network is expanding vigorously as during the concluding 10 stratums the network of main and distribution gas pipeline was expanded by 85% 2. Currently Pakistan is brush its gas demand by sexual sources but by the year 2011 the difference surrounded by countrys gas demand and supply will be 1. 2 Bcfd which will r ise to 3. 1 Bcfd by the year 2015 and ultimately to 11. 1 Bcfd by the year 2025 3.To fill the gap mingled with demands and supply Pakistan is intentning to import natural gas through pipeline from neighboring countries. Options of Turkmenistan, Iran and Qatar ar for sale for gas import. contour 1 shows that r come oute of future cross country pipeline. In Pakistan, expect investment in pipeline body structure is within align of 7 to10 billion dollars during the contiguous 5-10 years 4. Structure and characteristics of chance be incompatible in different mega purport such(prenominal) as Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline collectable to multi-party liaison from different geographic military positions and regulatory structure 5.These mega computes whitethorn be termed as international catchs defined as those where the proprietor and/or contractor whitethorn be from a country different to that of where the drift is situated characteristicly involve a wider range of issu es than domestic projects and in raise, moving outside of ones usual business legal power interjects umpteen unkn proclaims. Factors clashinging owner investment decisions with international capital facilities sight be quite complex and whitethorn vary signifi erecttly from component to part and project to project 18.Nature and touch of gamble argon different in different stages of project life roll of pipeline projects. For most efficacious stake direction it is recommended to plan, analyze and manage put on the line in solely phases of project life cycle i. e. initializing, concept clearance and feasibility, traffic pattern, bend and unconscious attend to. consciousness the blood between venture Corresponding Author S. Mubin (email&160protected edu. pk) encounter depth psychology for manifestation and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan c atomic number 18 and project phases for capital projects discharge be a difficult task.For instance, few encounters argon negligible in reflexion phase but argon of vital importance in visualise phase such as earthquake. While dealing with pretend perplexity of international projects, which ar oft first or one- metre efforts and project progress and phasing decisions stool be uninvolved from peril direction. For most international projects, different participants be responsible for get over of the various phases of a projects life cycle. In umpteen cases, the project owner is largely responsible for program abstract, a thirdparty is much hired to design (engineering), construct, manage and control to meet the initial onstraints pay back by the owner 6. Contractor is hired to construct the project, which turns the results over to the owner for operations or production. Structuring projects with distinct phases and responsibilities can increase hazard by isolating the project participants in such a manner that stripped-down attention is devoted to overarching project tendings. Individual project participants buzz off sakied with only their own project risks and either willingly or unwillingly try to transfer these risks to some other project participants.To limit the desktop of this paper the discussion is confined to the risks occurring during wind and operation phase. Figure 1 The routes of future gas pipeline project in the region. The uncertainty in projection facial expression of a pipeline project comes from many sources and often involves many participants in the project. Since individu onlyy participant tries to pick at its own risk, the conflicts among various participants can be detrimental to the project. Systematic risk commission of project activities is non fully recognized as valuable by practitioners in the twist industry.No common view of risk exists since the owner, investor, designer, and constructor expect differing project goals and verifiables, and diachronicly adverse relationships are common. In recent years , the concept of risk share/risk assignment contracts has gained acceptance in pipeline design and edifice. The distribution of risk between the client and contractor tends to overshadow effective counselling strategies and investigations show that contactors and owners give minimal consideration to risks outside the realm of their own concerns.The Federation world-widee des Ingenieurs Conseils (the International Federation of Consulting Engineers, FIDIC) and the International European social structure Federation (FIEC) publish two intimately-known and astray-accepted forms of conditions of contract for international construction projects (the Red and Yellow Books) that let in provisions on the fair and impartial risk sharing between the owner and the contractor as good as risk responsibilities, liabilities, indemnity, and insurance 7.Considering technological point of view geographic conditions of Pakistan are truly complex for the construction of pipeline projects. Almos t 50 % of the total area of Pakistan is mountainous or semi-mountainous and in rest of the 23 Pak. J. Engg. &038 Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 area there is wide network of rivers and canals (Figure 2). Therefore, for linear structure like pipelines there are extensive crossings and some quantifys extreme send conditions are met, where full stop of risk is increased as equivalence to fire pattern conditions of construction.On the other hand, risks during operation of pipelines have different characteristics depending upon the strength and weakness of run organization, topographical, geopolitical and climatic conditions of the country where project is executed. While dealing with natural risks, the geology and geographic characteristics of the regions must be thoroughly studied. For instance, the two continental plates i. e. Indian and Eurasian meet in Pakistan which highly stir on the eodynamics of the region which are the major(ip) source of earthquake 8. In monsoon period th ere is high chance of floods. Typical topography, steep slopes, high rainfall in a specific period (JuneAugust) and high temperature (melting glaciers) are the dominating factors for increase the frequency of floods in a contingent year. Considering geopolitics of the regions there is a persistent threat of unrest and terrorism.The frugal instability has added the problem callable to that there is frequent budge in frugal parameters. All these are in fact the capability risks for any construction project especially oil and gas pipelines in which risk are multiply many kris and there is exponential function rise in damage in case of incident of one or more than than than risks resulting huge human and environmental losses. Figure 2 Map of Pakistan showing chief(prenominal) geological and geographical features of the country . variety of bumps For effective pretend solicitude, risk classification is of primal importance. There are many kinds of classifications have been made so distant 10. In general, risks associated with pipeline projects whitethorn be classified as mostly attempt during pull lay on the line during Operation However, in operation, risk are slightly different, in which emphasis is stipulation to avoid those factor with vault safe and smooth operation/functioning of pipeline.Usually, in mega projects such as cross country physical structure pipelines investment risk are considered most import followed by the security risk. More minutely, risk during construction and operation of oil and gas pipelines can be divided into following categories ( defer 1) The character and causes of risk in each class are different. stakes during construction are time susceptible and the chance of occurrence of different risk are time dependent, more is the duration of project higher are the probabilities.These are generally cogitate to exploit of work actes, material availability, manpower, finances (budget), time frame, accident al, legal and environmental. 24 i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. vii. viii. Political risk Socio-economical risk Technical risk organisational risk Natural catastrophic risk Financial risk (investment risk) Safety and security risk Environment risk assay Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Table1 guess Classifications No 1. Category jeopardy Political risks Unstable Govt. olicies Change in economic parameters Breach in contractual relationship Unrealistic constitute service line and financial check out Inefficient communication Accident during construction or operation Earthquake venture Factors Change in labour policy Rise in inflation and material prices Loss of venture or partnership Exchange rate risk and rise in interest rate Inefficient and conventional technologies Not use of HSE policies and bar floods injure to surrounding environment Delay in approvals from regulatory bodies Seasonal inaccessibility of labour Unrealistic SWOT abbre viation Strikes, lockout, lawlessness Change in economic policies and tax system Fine or compensation 2. Socio-economical risks organizational risks 3. 4. investing risk Disinvestment from commercialise Insufficient resources and equipment Terrorism or state of war Strong credit policy Quality risk and rework humankind error (Damage or loss of machine or human resource) hold out conditions e. g. humidity, precipitation Damage to ecology and wildlife 5. Technological risk 6. Security risk 7. Natural and climatic risk Landslide, hurricanes Depletion of hydrocarbon resources 8. Damage to Environmental risk natural resources 2. 1 Political lay on the line The effect of countrys policies on the project instantly tinge on project succeeder or failure.During the policy making do, technical factors are usually ignored and policies whitethorn be set in a way that operation of a project may not be economical or trade offing. This factor is to a fault important in unstable governmen ts, where there is more risk of change of economic, oil color or labor policies, which are directly related to the pipeline projects. Delays can occur collectible to expectant and minute use for approval from public safety dominion department, environmental regulation agencies and oil and gas regulatory bodies. Public health, safety and environmental concern are more important in the western countries as compare to developing countries like Pakistan. Policy and political risks are more pertain in international project risks, such as cross exhibit pipeline projects.In international projects these risks 25 are sometimes overlooked or assessed haphazardly. Such risks include war, civil war, terrorism, expropriation, inability to transfer currency across borders, and trade credit defaults by foreign or domestic customers 6. Although risks such as civil unrest and economic stability are typically outside the domain, belowstanding and dealing with these risks are unfavourable for companies working internationally. A 2001 study by AON Trade Credit discovered that, in the draw 1000, only about 26 percent of companies had in place magisterial and consistent methodologies to assess political risks 6. 2. 2 Socio-economical riskSocio-economical conditions further reinforced the clime of uncertainty with high inflation and interest rates. The deregulation of financial institutions has also generated unanticipated problems related to the financing of construction. These risks can be forecasted and linked with the economic indicators of the country. For instance, In Pak. J. Engg. &038 Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Pakistan, the economic indicators are tending to grow disregarding of the political instability in the country. The GDP of the country was 8. 4% anterior to 2005 earthquake, which declined down to GDP 5. 6 or less currently. Earthquake and floods during the last two year courted government approximately $5. 4 B and anticipate to spend more $3. 6bn t ill 2010.Overall there is growth in the market and potential for foreign investment in construction sector 1. 2. 3 Technical risk The risks related to technological problems are familiar to the design/construct professions which have some degree of control over this category. However, because of rapid advances in in the buff technologies which drink new problems to designers and constructors, technological risk has become greater in many instances. Certain design confidences which have served the professions well in the past may become obsolete in present time. Site conditions, particularly subsurface conditions which always present some degree of uncertainty, can create an even greater degree of uncertainty during construction.Because construction procedures may not have been fully anticipated, the design may have to be modified after construction has begun. An example of facilities which have encountered such uncertainty is the nuclear power plant, and many owners, designers an d contractors have suffered for undertaking such projects. There is a need of technological advancement to overcome this risk. statistics, geological surveys, sub surface investigation through various method has given rise to the ontogenesis of such techniques which can not only determine frequency of occurring of such phenomenon in a particular region but also their equal and destruction. Northern areas of Pakistan are considered in high seismic zone 8 particularly after incidence of 8th Oct. 005 earthquake, in which more than 86000 people died and one million got injured and 3 million became homeless, this factor is highly considered in training, feasibility, design and construction of the any construction project in the region 9. The major reason is the plate tectonic effect in Himalaya, northern part of Pakistan. This plate tectonic motion is imputable to the uplift of Euro Asian plate by Indian plate (two plates are meeting in Pakistan) 2. 6 Investment risk Pipelines are me ga project. A lot of funding is involve for the effect and safe operation of pipelines. Investment has been always a prime risk in construction project due to multi party involvement.But especially for the international pipeline project, this is always risk of payback and trade offing, because of the bilateral and diplomatic relationships. 2. 7 Safety and security risk In a broader sense, safety and security risks include factors due to that loss or damage of resources (manpower, machinery and financial resources) or facilities (pipeline, pipeline crossing, gas compressor station) can occur during construction or operation phase of a pipeline. It is very often that loss of work time, machinery and manpower occur due to accident on side because of the negligence of some worker. These risks involve all actions (accident, malfunctioning, terrorism, war etc) due to that loss of resources nd production of pipeline can occur. These risks are more likely to occur during operation phase h owever, these can be occurring in construction stage as well. To cater these risk to occur Health safety policy is strengthen so that to minimize on-site and offsite accidents during construction. It is generally accepted that the pipeline are the target in terrorists attacks and wars. For, instance, history prevails that in last five years the total terrorist attacks made on the pipelines in Pakistan were 103. It may be the result of internal political situation of the country but anywhere in the world this factor of risk is considered to be very important.For safe operations, state of the art methodology and technology has been developed which ensure safe exploitation of pipeline, which include outside sensing, Geographical Information System (GIS) and mapping techniques, Light detection and ranging (LIDAR), ball-shaped positioning system (GPS), entropy acquisition (SCADA) and In-line inspection (ILI) etc. 26 2. 4 Organizational risk The risks related to organization and organ izational relationships may appear to be unnecessary but are quite real. laboured relationships may develop between various organizations involved in the design/construct process. When problems occur, discussions often center on responsibilities rather than project needs at a time when the focus should be on re figure out power the problems.Cooperation and communication between the parties are discouraged for fear of the effects of threatening litigation. This barrier to communication results from the illconceived notion that uncertainties resulting from technological problems can be eliminated by appropriate contract terms. The net result has been an increase in the cost of constructed facilities. 2. 5 Natural catastrophic risk Natural catastrophic risks are those on which there is no control. They are usually the act of divinity fudge and can occur at anytime and anywhere. Earthquake, floods, hurricanes are the common examples of these risks. However, due to the phylogenesis of the science and technology in the field of simulation and modeling,Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan 2. 8 Environmental risk Environmental concerns and awareness is increasing everywhere. The worldwide environmental protection apparent movement has contributed to the uncertainty for construction because of the inability to know what will be required and how long it will take to obtain approval from the regulatory agencies. This delay in approval practically capture on total cost of the project. Public safety regulations have similar effects. The situation constantly change guidelines for engineers, constructors and owners, as projects move through the stages of planning to construction due to the change in govt. policies.These moving targets add a significant new place of uncertainty which can make it virtually im likely to schedule and complete work at budgeted cost . Risk management reduces the touch of blackball risks and en hances positive risk to make opportunities. However, limiting our scope in this segment to prohibit risks, risk management may be defined as a method to reduce the consequences of negative events (risk) tend to occur during construction and operation of pipeline by developing mechanisms and strategies (risk transfer, risk diminution, risk distribution, avoidance, risk enhancement) compatible to the system environment in which project is executed. The strategy of risk management is sottish on risk depth psychology results for a particular project.According to Project Management implant (PMI) approach of risk management 11 the process includes 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Risk management planning Risk appointment qualitative risk analysis Quantitative risk analysis Risk reduction strategies 3. Risk Management exhibit Generally risk analysis and management had not been applied in construction industry and especially in pipeline projects. It is comparatively new area for pipeline projects, w hich is rapidly advancing due to the involvement of non native client or contractor. However, the concept of risk analysis and management is getting fame in pipeline project due to involvement of multinational contractor/organizations.Basically risk management deals with management of positive and negative events which occurs during realization of projects. 3. 1 Risk management planning Risk management process (PMI approach) starts with the planning of risk management, which includes a detailed risk management planning. In Risk management planning the proposed course of action for risk analysis is set. The input, outfit and process are shown in the table 2. Table 2 Process showing Risk Management Planning 19 scuttlebutt Organizational environmental factor Organizational process of assets Project scope management Project management plan Planning meeting and analysis Risk Management Plan Planning course of action Process Out put 3. 2 Risk Identification processFor effective risk ana lysis and management the acknowledgement of risk is very important conservatively such that no important factor is left which can negatively have-to doe with on the project. The risk indemnification process input and output are shown in table 3, which include the following Information conference Techniques Examples of reading gathering techniques employ in identifying risk can include brainstorming, Delphi techniques, interviewing, root cause naming and SWOT (Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) 27 analysis. Brainstorming is important data gathering technique for risk identification in which a group of team members or pillow slip-matter seriouss (design, construction, purchase, finance etc) together identify expected risks.Delphi is other technique of information gathering utilise as a way to reach a consensus of experts on a subject. Experts on the subject participate in this technique anonymously. A facilitator uses a questionnaire to solicit ideas Project Documentation Reviews For risk identification project enrolmentation are reviewed, including plans, assumptions, earlier project files, and other information. The quality of the plans, as well as Pak. J. Engg. &038 Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 consistency between those plans and with the project requirements and assumptions, can be indicators of risk in the project. Assumptions Analysis Every pipeline project is conceived and developed based on a set of hypotheses, scenarios, or assumptions.Assumptions analysis is a tool that explores the rigorousness of assumptions as they apply to the project. It identifies risks to the project from inaccuracy, inconsistency, or incompleteness of assumptions. Table 3 Process of Risk Identification Input Organizational environmental factor Organizational process of assets Project scope management Project management plan Risk Management plan Checklist Analysis Risk identification checklists can be developed based on historical information and know ledge that has been accumulated from previous similar projects and from other sources of information. The lowest direct of the RBS can also be utilise as a risk checklist.Diagramming techniques Some Risk diagramming techniques may also be used for risk identification which includes cause-and-effect diagrams, system or process flow charts and influence diagrams. Process Information collection Documentation review Assumption analysis Checklist analysis Diagramming techniques Out put Risk Register 3. 3 Qualitative risk analysis There are several theories to quantify risks 12, 17. Numerous different risk formulae exist, but perhaps the most widely accepted formula for risk quantification is Rate of Occurrence i. e. , prospect multiplied by the wallop of event equal to Risk way out, mathematically express in equation 7. The inputs and output of qualitative risk analysis process is shown in table-4.PMI defined jimmys of luck and reach factor can be used in risk analysis given in T able 5. However, the selection of one of the value of P for a particle risk from table 5, is based on expert judgment which may produce controversial results. The objective is to prioritize risk based on their probability and impact mind. Probability and impaction matrix is used to control the impact of risk from least to maximum possibility. Another method called Risk Data Quality Assessment is used which requires accurate and unbiased data Analysis of the quality of risk data is a technique to adjudicate the degree to which the data about risks is useful for risk management.It involves examining the degree to which the risk is understood. Risks to the project can be categorized by sources of risk (e. g. , development the RBS), the area of the project affected (e. g. , using the Work disruption Structure), or other useful category (e. g. , project phase) to determine areas of the project most exposed to the effects of uncertainty. Table 4 Process showing Qualitative risk ana lysis 19 Input Organizational process of assets Project scope management Project management plan Risk Management plan Risk Register Process Risk probability and impact sagacity Probability and Impact matrix Risk data quality judging Risk categorization Risk Register (updates) Out put 28Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Table 5 Standard values of frequency of occurrence and Impact factors 11 Possibility of occurrence very high chance High chance Greater chance Possible Likely Unlikely Probability (P) 90 % 75% 60% 45% 30% 15% Type and take aim of risk Impact When maximum impact on scope, time and cost High impact on scope, medium impact on time and lesser impact on cost High impact on time, medium impact on scope and lesser impact on cost When high impact on cost of the project, medium impact on time and lesser impact on scope Impact Factor (I) 0. 9 0. 6 0. 3 0. 1 3. 4 Quantitative risk analysisFor valued risk analysis any of the fol lowing method may be used as illustrated in Table 6. incorporates probabilities and the costs or rewards of each logical path of events and future decisions, and uses expected monetary value analysis to help the organization identify the relation values of alternate actions. front also expected monetary value analysis. aesthesia analysis sensitiveness analysis helps to determine which risks have the most potential impact on the project. It examines the extent to which the uncertainty of each project element affects the objective macrocosm examined when all other uncertain elements are held at their baseline value.One typical display of sensitivity analysis is tornado diagram, which is useful for comparing relative importance of inconsistents that have a high degree of uncertainty to those that are more stable. Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Analysis It is a statistical technique that calculates the expected outcome of future scenarios in monetary form that may or may not happen . role model and simulation Modeling and simulation is recommended for cost and schedule risk analysis because it is more stiff and less subject to misapplication than expected monetary value analysis. show uses a model that translates the uncertainties specified at a detailed level of the project into their potential impact on project objectives. 3. 5 Risk eduction strategies Risk register may be obtained from risk management procedure defined by Project Management Institute (PMI) 11, which is a document containing the results of the qualitative risk analysis and quantitative risk analysis. On the creation of risk analysis risk reducing strategy is set which is also given in risk register. The risk register in that way, presents all related information of set risks including description, category, cause, probability of occurring, impact(s), risk number and the possible strategy set for each risk. Decision Tree The decision tree diagram is a diagram that describes a decision un der consideration and the implications of choosing one or another of the useable alternatives. It is used when some future scenarios or outcomes of actions are uncertain.It Table 6 Process showing Quantitative risk analysis 19 Input Organizational process of assets Project scope management Project management plan Risk Management plan Risk Register Process Out put Quantitative risk analysis ( Sensitivity analysis, Decision Tree, Modeling and Simulation, Expected Monetary Value, EMV) 29 Risk Register (updates) Pak. J. Engg. &038 Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 The common course of action of the any organization or participant (consultant, contractor, client or owner) participating in the construction process of oil and gas pipeline can adopt one or combination of course of action given below, depending upon the type of project, location and circumstances.Distribution of risk between participants of the project can be made by 1. Risk Transfer (insurance, contracts) 2. Contingency Budget 3. Risk mitigation (problem solving and root cause analysis) 4. Risk avoidance 4. Development of Risk Management Model for Pipeline Construction Projects Project Management Institute (PMI) approach of risk analysis and management may be complicated and laborious for construction project like pipeline. Therefore a model of risk analysis and management is developed which simplifies the process and produce more presumptive results with the implementation of Monte Carlo simulation (Figure 3). Project document review grocery store Analysis Client/Contractor reviewGeopolitical analysis and review 2. Risk Classification Risk crack-up Structure (RBS) 3. Risk probability and impact factor Data collection (Authentic source) Data processing (Normal, Beta, Gamma, Log, etc distribution) Calculation of Frequency (P) and Impact factor (I) 4. Risk analysis 5. Monte Carlo Simulation Identification of precise risk 6. Risk management strategy Risk Transfer (Contract, insurance) Risk Distribution (Bet ween parties) Risk Mitigation (Eliminating risk causes) Risk Avoidance 7. Risk monitoring process Documentation Monitoring process and results Check and make changes Data Bank Figure3 Risk Management Model for pipelines construction project. 30Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan STEP-1 Model starts with identification and classification of risks considering the type of construction project. Degree and frequency of risk varies from trunk pipeline to distribution line. similarly it gives suitable approach for both the major parties i. e. Owner (client) and the Contractor. Before identifying the risk the market review, client/contractor capability and geopolitical conditions of the region are analyzed where project is expected to be executed. The types of risk are also depending upon the type of contractual relationship between the owner and constructing firm. In different ypes of contract (Build-Operate and Transfer, Engineering-Purchase and Construction, Figure, Turnkey contracts, Labour contract, etc) between the owner and constructing body the level and intensity of risk differs 13. STEP-2 On the rump of risk identification risk are categorized and Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) is made as shown in Figure 4. Risk identification is the most important thing followed by the probability and impact unhurriednesss in whole risk analysis process. Figure 4 Risk Breakdown Structure of gas pipeline project STEP-3 Risk probability assessment investigates the likelihood that each specific risk will occur. Risk impact assessment investigates the potential effect on a project objective such as time, cost, scope, or quality.The selection of PMI defined the values of probability and impact factor given in Table 5 is based on expert judgment which may produce controversial results. For instance, it may be difficult some time to distinguish the possibility from high Chance to Greater Chance for that an expert can use 60% proba bility value however, another use 45%. In that way some negligible risk may be superseded to other important risk. Risk impact factor defined by Project Management Institute (PMI) are used in this study which range from 0,1 to 0. 9 depending upon the type and impact of event to the project. For risk Monte Carlo Simulation the minute value of probabilities are required.Therefore, probability and impact of each risk may be calculated based on historic data. In this 31 case we the values of probability of different risks are calculated by using different probability distribution curves, however, when the historical data is not available, the probability is judged by experts opinion (from SNGPL) or the direct value of probability for that particular risk published by the related government agency. It is very important to define the probability distribution of a risk on the nates of that the frequency of occurrence is calculated. It is observed that the probability distribution of diff erent risk appearing in different stages of project life cycle is different.Therefore, during calculation of probability of each risk the characteristic of risk must be considered to find the appropriate distribution to get the more precise results. For example, figure 5 shows the 10 year data of flood 21 depicts that the a normal curve is best suited to find the probability of a given volume/time called as the flood flow may be calculated using Equation 1,2 and 3 14. Pak. J. Engg. &038 Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Figure 5 Graphical representation of flood data 1990-2001 where P probability of occurrence Z area under normal curves for a given value X (the probability of that area can be found out from charts) ? mean value of the 10 year data of river flows. ? standard deviation of the mean data.On the bottom of historical data, obtained from IRSA, the probability of river flow more than 400 (MAF) (which is termed as flood flow) through river system of Pakistan (sum of river flow at a time on Mangla and Terbela) is calculated by using measured. Similarly other risks are also quantified based on the characteristic of data distribution curve. For instance, for earthquakes we are interested to find the probability of occurrence earthquake more than 5. 5 Richer Scale. According to construction codes, the earthquake between 3. 5-5. 4 Richer Scale is often felt, but rarely causes damage. A value of 5. 5 Richer Scale is selected to calculate probability of 32 occurrence under assumption that almost slight damage to well designed buildings can caused major damage to poorly constructed buildings over small regions.Pipelines can go under slight damage of residual. For a random variable X (x > 0 and elsewhere i. e. x < 0 the value of probability is zero) have an exponential distribution with parameter ? then probability distribution is defined as in equation (4), (5) and (6) 14. Therefore either exponential or da Gamma distribution (with m =1) may be used for prob ability calculation of earthquake at a given value (in Richer Scale) using the historical data 9, as shown in the Figure 6. where P probability of occurrence ? mean value of historic data ? standard deviation of the historic data e 2. 718282 VAR is the variance at any value X. For 5. Richer Scale earthquake ? = 1 ? P (X > 5. 5) = ? 1. e 1*5. 5 = 0. 000408 5. 5 Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Frequency of occurrence 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Earthquake Intensity (Richer scale) Figure 6 Graphical representation 45 year earthquake data STEP-4 On the alkali of probability values for each risk a risk register (table 7) may be made which presents quantitative risk analysis for each risk. PMI defined impact factor can be used which clear cut defines the type and condition of risk impact. On the basis of this formula below qualitative risk analysis is made.The following relationship is used for risk analysis 11 RN = P x I RN Risk Number P Probability of occurrence I Impact factor of risk For parameters the data is not available expert judgment can be used for probability assessment. Risk Number (RN) can be found for all risk identified in Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS). Manually it can be identified searing risk having larger risk number, RN based on the one point calculation. However, the more authentic way to identify the critical risks associated to pipeline project is Monte Carlo Simulation approach which is discussed in next step. STEP 5 Monte Carlo simulation is a widely used countal method for generating probability distributions of variables that depend on other variables or parameters represented as probability distributions.Although Monte Carlo simulation has been used since the 1940s, development of computer technology has made it accessible and attractive for many new applications 15. That availability has coincided with increasing dissatisfaction with the deterministic or point estimate calculations typically used in quantitative risk assessment as a result, Monte Carlo simulation is rapidly gaining popularity. Monte Carlo simulation, which is a mathematical method used in risk analysis to approximate the distribution of potential results based on probabilistic 33 (7) inputs would involve many calculations of the ingestion rate rather than a single calculation for each calculation, the computation would use a value for each input parameter helter-skelter selected from the probability density function for that variable 16.Each simulation is generated by arbitrarily pulling a sample value for each input variable from its defined probability distribution, e. g. uniform, normal, lognormal, triangular, beta, etc. These input sample values are then used to calculate the results, i. e. total project duration, total project cost, project clear up time. The inputs can be task duration, cost, start and finish time, etc. This procedure is then repeated until the probability distributions are sufficiently well represented to achieve the desired level of accuracy. They are used to calculate the critical path, slack values, etc. Monte Carlo simulations have been prove an effective methodology for the analysis of project schedule with uncertainties.In Monte Carlo simulation any desired level of mathematical accuracy can be achieved by increasing the number of iterations. Risks are apparent entities, it is possible that all the risk accrued at the same time during project execution and may be no identified risk appears. Therefore, it is desired to use Monte Carlo simulation technique to find the most critical and probable risk which can appear in the pipeline project. Risk analysis has been made by using program Riskyproject 1. 3. 3 20 which is an advanced project management software with integrated risk analysis. RiskyProject is used for planning, scheduling, quantitative risk analysis, and performance measurement of projects with multiple risks and uncertainties.RiskyProject determines which parameters will have the most effect on the project duration, cost, and finish time with and without risks, crucial tasks, critical risks, and success rate. RiskyProject helps to optimize the course of the project track project performance and risk together and analyze the affect of mitigation efforts 22. On the basis of Monte Carlo simulation critical risks are Pak. J. Engg. &038 Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Table 7 Risk input in risk register and their quantitative analysis for pre-defined risks Risk Identification and Categorization Cat. Risk 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 1. 2. Risk Register Risk Analysis Freq. Risk reducing StrategyRanking 27 3 23 25 8 14 29 1 12 21 16 8 9 12 4 5 3 2 24 18 19 11 10 5 20 11 12 5 15 3 12 2 6 8 Risk Avoidance Risk Risk Transfer Mitigation Remarks Risk Delay in approvals from regulatory bodies Unstable Government policies Change in reg ulations Change in labor policy Change in petroleum policy Political instability Lawlessness, strikes, lockouts Change in economic parameters hitch up in material prices Unavailability of skilled laborers Change in project scope Insufficient technology Completion of construction not on time Not realistic planning of resources and volume of work entreat for increase in project budget In sufficient specialist and engineers Strains in contractual relationships Financial delays Disinvestment from the market Loss ofPartnership Change in credit policy (increase interest rate) Design not completed in time Unexpected obstacle on site (dewatering, rock excavation) subdued communication between team members War Terrorism Accident on site during construction Loss of human life Earthquake make full Landslides Unexpended weather condition, precipitation wind storms Damage to environment abjection of natural resources (P) 5,15% 8% 2,10% 2,90% 5% 4% 4,50% 8,10% 8,03% 6,80% 3,9 % 10% 9,50% 8, 10% 13,13 % 6,50% 5,30% 6. 1 % 4,40% 3,01% 5,10% 7,80% 7,80% 5,90% 0,10% 2,20% 2% 3,90% 0,04% 3,07% 2,1 % 4,72% 3,75% 1,10% Impact (I) 0,32 0,6 4 0,9 0,6 0,6 0,6 0,3 0,9 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,1 1Risk Number 1,55% 4,80% 1,89% 1,74% 3,00% 2,40% 1,35% 7,29% 2,41% 2,04% 2,34% 3,00% 2,88% 2,43% 3,94% 3,90% 4,77% 5,49% 0,44% 1,81% 1,53% 2,34% 2,34% 3,54% 0,09% 1,98% 1,80% 2,34% 0,12% 2,76% 0,63% 2,82% 2,25% 0,66% E?5 E? E? GO E? E? E? 6 3 GO, EO SA 7 GO E? EO EO EO SA GO SA EO EO SA EO SA EO EO EO SA SA SA SA SA SA SA GO GO 0,6 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,3 0,6 0,6 0,6 0. 1- When high impact on cost of the project, medium impact on time and lesser impact on scope. 0. 3- High impact on time, medium impact on scope and lesser impact on cost. 3. 0. 6- High impact on scope, medium impact on time and lesser impact on cost. 4. 0. 9- When maximum impact on scope, time and cost. 5.EO- Frequency of risk is based on experts opinion. 6. GO- Frequency of risk is base d on statistic available by pertinent Government organization. 7. SA- Frequency of risk is based on statistical analysis. 34 Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Figure-7(a) Monte Carlo Simulation conducted for risk analysis of Muree Rawat gas pipeline project presents most probable cost and duration to complete project. It also presents most probable date of mop up of the project considering all identified risks. Figure-7(b) Result obtained from simulation identifying most critical risk impacting scope, duration and cost Muree Rawat gas pipeline project dentified impacting on scope, cost and duration of project Figure 7 (a) and (b). Strategy for risk management is set accordingly. The following analysis and results was produced by the programme 35 Sensitivity analysis Success rate of completion Critical risks affecting cost Critical risks affecting duration of project Pak. J. Engg. &038 Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Critical activities. just about probable duration closely probable cost of the project Most probable date of completion of project. STEP 6 On the basis of critical risk identification by Monte Carlo simulation, risk reduction strategy is set, which may be risk transfer, mitigation, avoidance, distribution and etc.During construction process the impact of risk can be lowered by changing the schedule of construction for example 95% of probability of flood occurrence is in period from June to August. In flood, the area comes under water and may not be possible to continue the construction process. Therefore, schedule may be set in a way that ground related activities should be set accordingly to avoid the occurrence. STEP 7 The results or set methodology for risk management must be periodically monitored and checked for improvement. Lesson learned and recommendation should be send to Data Bank which may be useful for risk analysis and management of another pipeline project of similar nature. organization al capacity for design, construction and operation. Organizational or technological risk like insufficient resource planning or project management, change in scope etc can be eliminated by improving the process or application of new technologies available in this field. New state of the art technologies are helpful in managing change at any stage of the project. Historical data of river flows shows that the flood has probability of 95% of occurrence between June and August. This risk can be minimized during construction phase by rearranging the construction schedule. Other risks like landslides are associated with floods, rain fall or earthquakes. Earthquake risk during construction phase depends on the length of execution of project and only impact on the construction cost of the project. As the duration of the execution increases probability of occurrence of risk also increase.However, in operation phase this risk must be eliminated by practicing design based on earthquake/horizon tal forces. 5. Conclusion and Recommendations Probability of risk occurrence P comes out to be the function of project duration T both during construction and operation phase. However Intensity of destruction or Impact is a function of enterprise internal and external environment. Three most critical tasks calculated by Risky Project are Excavation, Transportation of satisfying and Stringing of pipelines. The most critical risks come out to be change in economic parameters, Change in design and scope, earthquake and terrorism during construction and operation of gas pipelines.Considering all risks the probable values to project completion calculated by Risky project is 460 days however the base project duration is 390 days. Similarly the project cost without risks is 350,00,000 however, with risks it is 391,00,000. On the basis of that contingency budget of project can be formulated to cater the risk. The secondary risks like change in material prices, construction not finished in time or budget and design not in time can be reduced or transferred to the other party or organization by contract. However SNGPL is designing, constructing and operating gas pipelines so risk can be eliminated by strengthening the internal Acknowledgement Mr. Pervair, Senior General theatre director and Engr.Waqar Ashraf, Deputy General Manager (Projects), SNGPL are acknowledged for their contribution and support in providing data and relevant material. REFERENCE 1 Economic Survey of Pakistan, Ministry of Finance, Chapter 15, Energy Sector of Pakistan, Islamabad, Pakistan. (2006), 219-225. 2 Annual accounting Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL), Lahore, Pakistan (2006), 511. 3 Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) Pipeline Pre-feasibility report by Hagler Bailly Pakistan. 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